Imagine the possibilities if farmers knew the optimum moments for planting, irrigating, and harvesting. Imagine if electric utility companies could precisely anticipate peak energy requirements. Imagine completely reliable storm forecasts that emergency management personnel could use to coordinate disaster relief.

With today's technology, providing the data necessary to optimize each of these scenarios is possible. But not in Texas. The technology is available, but the data is lacking.

"Weather observation hasnıt kept up with technology," said Bob Rose, chief meteorologist with the Lower Colorado River Authority. "We have a long way to go. Data collection hasnıt changed much in Texas over the last several decades."

Current Capability

With one of the most diverse climates in the country, Texas has a deficient weather collection system. The National Weather Service does a good job recording reliable hourly weather information in only 20 percent of the 254 counties, with nearly half of these along and near the I-35 Corridor. Upper air information is obtained from nine data collection sites scattered across Texas, but large data-voids exist in both surface and upper air data, especially in Central Texas. And even though a number of small automated weather networks exist, the data is difficult to access and sometimes not useable.

"Just imagine the area between El Paso, Monterey, Mex., Brownsville, Del Rio, and Midland," said Dan White, principal atmospheric scientist with the Texas Natural Resources Conservation Commission. "There are no upper air data recording stations in that entire area." A huge gap exists across Central Texas between Laredo, Houston, Dallas, and Midland.

"The weather we sense at the ground happens in the middle atmosphere," White explained. "It's important that we have ways to know what's going on." A MesoNet would fill those gaps.

In layman's terms, a MesoNet is a dense network of automated weather stations to ascertain the fine scales of weather. It's applications include:

• Reliable weather data where little or none exists today
• Vital data for improved forecasts and warnings of severe weather and floods
• Enhanced emergency management and disaster mitigation decision-making
• Accurate weather records for every area of the state
• An important tool for planning and policy decisions
• Near real-time data availability for all Texans

As presently envisioned, the Texas MesoNet will consist of 340 automated surface stations spaced approximately every 30 miles with lower atmospheric profiler systems co-located at 40 stations at 90 mile intervals.

Thirty sites will be positioned offshore in the Gulf of Mexico, while an additional 230 stations will be installed at closer intervals across selected counties. To observe finer-scale upper level wind flow, an additional 25 profilers will be installed in these counties as well.

Once operational, the plan is for every citizen to have near instant access via the Internet to current and reliable weather information for their county and/or region.

"Surface-based weather stations exist at highly variable spacing. Some are more than 100 miles apart," Rose explained. "A lot of storms can develop in the holes."

He added that atmospheric profilers would be placed every 90 miles, whereas now some are 300 to 400 miles apart.

"The plan also includes offshore stations so we can track the weather that starts in the gulf," Rose said.

Reliable & Timely Observations

The Director of the National Weather Service acknowledges today's federal system is incapable of producing enough weather observations and that they would like to have more timely and reliable data.

A July 1998 study by the National Research Council of the current nationwide cooperative weather observing program discloses that automated weather observing systems -- or MesoNet-like networks -- could greatly improve today's national weather data network.

Additionally, the Fort Worth NWS Southern Region Headquarters fully supports the MesoNet, citing it would be of tremendous value to the citizens of Texas in terms of lives saved and reduction to property damage resulting from more accurate and timely warnings.

"If we could save each farmer one trip to the field every five years, then we would be putting less chemicals into the groundwater supply," White explained. "At the same time, we would be increasing production and providing benefits to the agribusiness of the state."

Meteorologists and climatologists use accurate historical weather records to build databases for planning and research.

In Texas, the MesoNet will help to level the playing field by tracking season-to-season and year-to-year weather change.

Automated instruments at each MesoNet site will collect critical real-time data every five minutes ­ transmit it to the regional center, verify quality and make it available on-line to customers in only 10-20 minutes. They would include:

• Air temperature
• Relative humidity
• Wind speed & direction
• Barometric Pressure
• Rainfall
• Solar radiation
• Soil temperatures and moisture
• Leaf wetness
• Other instruments to collect unique data

Sites with profiler instrumentation will automatically survey the lower atmosphere, recording wind speed and direction data to levels as high as 15,000 feet and temperature data to about 5,000 feet.

"We believe in the MesoNet," said Texas Tech's Chancellor John Montford. "Thatıs why we, Texas Tech University and Texas A&M University, agreed to work together in support of a statewide network."

Texas Tech is currently working with local officials to fund a 28 county network around Lubbock. It would be the first major step toward a statewide network.

Improved Forecast & Warning Capability

For the first time, the enhanced observations will be used to initialize forecast models, providing the "ground truth" needed to direct the future improvements of mesoscale forecast models.

For example, having the MesoNet data in near real-time will enable short-range forecasts of temperature, wind, and humidity. This could reduce analyses errors as much as 50 to 75 percent, particularly for rural areas which are over 20 miles from todayıs network. Overall, forecast improvements should be on the order of 20 to 30 percent.

This would equate to better emergency management during severe events and assistance to those involved in weather related decision-making.

"The real boon to the citizens of Texas is that is would provide better observational data and provide the critical information needed to make a far better forecast," White said.

Another example, the NWS River Forecast Center in Fort Worth is very excited about obtaining high resolution raingage data.

"The 15 minute updates from the MesoNet will provide the essential information to enhance our ability to make significantly better flash flood and river flood forecasts," said Greg Story, hydrometeorologist at the Western Gulf RFC.

As Oklahoma has experienced with its mesonet, NWS forecasters will use timely and reliable county-to-county temperature, moisture, and wind information to improve storm predictions. The profiler data will complement the surface data and provide fine-resolution insights on wind flow patterns not available today. Preferred areas of convergence for potentially high areas of precipitation will be known.

"There are many locations within the state where the number of hourly rain gages is so small, a comparison between radar estimates and ground truth can not be achieved," said Story. "That makes it impossible to accurately determine if radar estimates from those radars is high or low."

This information would be invaluable for severe thunderstorm and tornado warnings and essential for ice storm coverage and severity prediction.

"People who work outdoors need to know weather trends," Rose said. "A MesoNet will give concrete readings and help us better forecast the weather."

"Today's computer models have become very sophisticated and if we can increase the amount of data, the utility of the output will be even greater."

Cost & Development Concept

Over the last two years, progress has been made towards the realization of a real-time monitoring network for Texas. With support from the TNRCC, Texas A&M University and the LCRA, the vision has continued. Much more remains to be done, however, and the program remains unfunded!

The hardware for the Texas MesoNet will cost about $23 million. The siting and installation of the network will be slightly more than $4 million. Once funded, estimates forecast a 5-year ramp-up at just under $10 million per year. This includes the setting up and operating costs for the regional centers and associated personnel.

After the MesoNet is completed, the operation and maintenance will be about $8 million per year.

"If, for example, by providing better forecast information to our electric utilities, we could reduce the amount of fuel burned by one-fourth of one percent, then that would be a great economic incentive for the electric utilities and it would provide environmental benefits with fewer emissions," White said. "And that would more than pay for the MesoNet in one year."

As envisioned, full-scale incremental deployment of the 600 MesoNet sites and final commissioning will take close to 5 years. However, if it is started by Spring 1999, the first phase deployment can be completed by winter 2001. This phase will survey, install, and certify at least one site in every county that has no measurements today and include 10 sites positioned strategically offshore in the Gulf of Mexico.

This initial deployment will yield significant data collection capabilities. Coupled with a focused system software development, it will allow an ongoing shake-down of the field network during installation and a close examination of data ingest and each milestone during product growth.

Tabular data and specialized graphical products would be made available early in the first phase deployment. As new sites are installed and certified operational, products and data in a "test" mode would be available immediately for users to exploit for integration into their daily activities and allow them to develop new operations concepts.

The later phase, the remaining two to three years, would concentrate on filling in the network to increase data density and tailor products for users.

"During my 11 years at the Lower Colorado River Authority, Iıve spent countless hours watching the weather," said Mark Rose, general manager of LCRA.

"Improved knowledge of current and forecast weather conditions will help us in several ways -- not just in the production of electricity, but also in saving peopleıs lives and protecting their resources as we manage the Colorado River."

Similarly, Sen. Jeff Wentworth sees the network as much needed modernization.

"The Texas MesoNet would improve our weather awareness across the state," he said. "It would add enormous utility to virtually all weather sensitive activities and would greatly assist state and local managers in making better decisions during emergency situations."

Revolutionary Modernization

Mark Rose was the first to suggest electric utilities build the MesoNet and pass the cost on to their customers. If electric customers paid start-up and maintenance costs, the average electric bill would only increase by pennies a month.

In April 1997, the plan was presented to the Public Utility Commission, and the commissioners agreed the project was worthwhile.

"The implementation of this system is vital to Texas," said Mark Rose. "The LCRA is committed to this project and we will file a petition to ask the PUC to allow capital and operating cost of the system to be included in transmission rates. If all goes well, the Texas MesoNet will be a key step closer to becoming a reality."

Once funded, the Texas MesoNet would modernize weather data collection across Texas. Federal, state, county, and local emergency planners and managers would have a timely and reliable weather information to execute disaster mitigation, conduct realistic training scenarios, and to apply directly during real catastrophes.

The near real-time data will produce a new weather awareness for a spectrum of applications -- enhanced fire control, more efficient use of water resources, and accurate records to quantify drought severity.

For the first time, farmers and ranchers would have nearly instant access to reliable and timely weather data as they conduct agriculture activities such as planting, irrigation, pesticide application, and harvesting. Electric utility companies could more precisely anticipate peak requirements and streamline their operations. The offshore marine industry would greatly benefit, as would K-12 classrooms, undergraduate program and research studies at universities.

"County officials would do well to take a hard look at the potential benefits a MesoNet could offer their counties," White said. "Water conservation, water quality, and air quality are all important issues ­ each of which would benefit from a MesoNet."

This revolutionary modernization is needed and county officials are urged to weigh the lasting economic effect and positive impact on the quality of life. The Texas MesoNet would benefit every citizen -- individuals, agencies, commercial and industrial interests will make better decisions using timely and accurate weather information.

For more information, please visit our web site (www.met.tamu.edu/texnet/mesonet.html) or contact Dr. Gary L. Sickler (e-mail: sickler@ariel.tamu.edu; voice: 409-845-3305).

This web site is maintained by Thomas John Petroski